Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress and its Center for Housing Solutions & Community Initiatives have analyzed rental housing and wage data for more than a decade. Our reports on housing trends help lawmakers, nonprofit agencies, developers, and other stakeholders in their efforts to provide housing that is affordable in the region. Our annual Out of Reach (OOR) report examines the affordability of rental housing and homeownership throughout the nine counties we serve: Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester.

This report is based largely on data published annually by the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC), which compares fair-market rents (FMR) with average renter wages to arrive at the Rent Gap: the difference between fair market rental costs and rents that would be affordable to tenants earning average wages. In addition, we compare home sales prices and Area Median Incomes (AMI) throughout the Hudson Valley to provide what we have coined the Mortgage Gap, which underscores the challenges faced by median earners trying to buy their first home.

This year’s data confirm what many in our region already know all too well: The cost of housing in the Hudson Valley continues to rise faster than wages for renters and buyers. Over the 5-year period from 2020 through 2025, the average rent gap grew steadily in nearly every county, with Ulster increasing by $388 (59%), Westchester by $454 (47%), and Columbia by $222 (54%). Even over the past year alone, counties like Sullivan and Westchester saw sharp year-over-year jumps of $141 (48%) and $336 (31%), respectively. For the first time this year, two working adults sharing the cost of rent in Westchester cannot afford a 2-bedroom apartment without spending more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.

These numbers highlight the immediate and growing strain felt by renters, as housing costs continue to outpace income year after year. As a result, working tenants are left with less money to cover basic necessities—like food, transportation, and the cost of raising a family.

Housing policy typically uses Area Median Income (AMI) as a threshold for affordability, which accounts for both renter and homeowner incomes. Because owners tend to earn significantly more than renters, the resulting AMI skews higher than what typical tenants earn. Many affordable housing programs target units at 80% AMI, yet our work shows that the majority of working renters across the region fall below 50% AMI. This mismatch means that many “affordable” units remain out of reach for people who need them most, and the standard metrics used to design housing policy often do not work as intended.

Given the high cost of new construction, many regional stakeholders worry that stricter affordability mandates could unintentionally stifle development. Tackling this crisis demands a broader toolkit—one that mixes traditional interventions with new, bold, flexible solutions. The Hudson Valley must build more housing of every type, preserve existing affordable homes, support cooperative ownership and community land trusts, enable the construction of smaller homes on smaller lots, expand zoning to accommodate mobile and tiny home communities, require landlords to accept housing vouchers, and redefine affordability benchmarks based on actual renter incomes—not medians skewed by high-earning homeowners.