Climate refugees are moving to the Hudson Valley. Should we expect more?

Data suggest that climate change could push more people into the Hudson Valley in the years ahead as droughts, fires, and extreme weather make other parts of the United States less sustainable for living.

The research team at Pattern for Progress has identified this signal in recent migration data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which uses tax filings to track the movement of people county-by-county across the United States. (You can read our most recent report on migration in the Hudson Valley by clicking here.)

For example, a growing number of people have moved from California to the Hudson Valley over the past three years. The IRS data showed that 1,180 people moved from Los Angeles County, California to the Hudson Valley from 2018-2020. Many of those people were lured here by the growing film and TV industry in New York. But Pattern also met several California expats who had no connection to entertainment jobs. Instead, they cited years of droughts, water restrictions, and deadly fires as their motives for moving to the Hudson Valley.

Experts throughout New York are starting to think about climate migration and how it might affect our communities. This spring, Pattern attended a regional workshop in Ithaca that discussed the possibility of more climate-driven migration into the region and how we might prepare for an influx of new residents.

The workshop, “Exploring Climate Migration to the Rustbelt,” was hosted by Cornell University’s Department of City and Regional Planning, and was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Antioch University. The conference explored how a swath of the Northeast might absorb new residents without displacing existing ones, and how communities would need to ensure that infrastructure and resources meet the needs of everyone.

For communities that have experienced population decline, climate migrants might bring new people and opportunities. That would be especially valuable in the Hudson Valley, which has lost a net of 134,505 people to outward migration since 1997. The region has lost more people than it has gained for 24 or the last 25 years, exacerbating a workforce shortage that is affecting practically every industry in the Hudson Valley.

Areas that have seen the decline of industry might have additional infrastructure capacity, making them well suited for new migrants. However, communities should consider what must be done to prepare for incoming residents. What jobs will migrant residents fill? What job training is necessary? Housing is already a major concern in many communities because there is not enough safe and affordable housing for existing residents. How can communities meet current housing needs while welcoming new climate migrants? These are some of the questions that were discussed during the workshop.

Pattern urges communities throughout the Hudson Valley to start thinking about their existing challenges – housing, water and sewer capacity, and more – through the lens of climate migration. There is a good chance that local demand for infrastructure and housing might increase.

Why?

Our likelihood of attracting more climate refugees is directly tied to water – a natural resource that is abundant in the Hudson Valley. Future migration will likely be driven by natural disasters and the reliability of drinking water systems. All the major global climate models predict that the Northeast will become wetter as other parts of the United States, especially the West and South, suffer through longer and more frequent droughts. (This advantage comes with its own down-side consequences, as wetter weather will periodically bring heavy rains and floods like the kind we saw this month in Orange, Putnam and Rockland counties.) The moist climate in our region will sustain drinking water supplies and suppress the already-low risk of wildfires.

Paired with the migration trends that we see now, it is reasonable to believe that the Hudson Valley could be a preferred destination for people escaping the worst effects of climate change in other parts of the United States.

The research team at Pattern for Progress will continue to track the data, report on migration, and make itself available to communities who want to plan for demographic changes that are shaping the future of our Hudson Valley.