The Great People Shortage

A Special Report – Analyzing Hudson Valley Demographic Trends and the Consequences

Why?

This research brief was inspired by a trend that elected leaders, economic development experts, and business owners have felt across the Hudson Valley for the past several years. Our neighbors often hint at this trend through a nagging set of questions they have been asking more frequently.

Why is there such a shortage of nurses, restaurant wait staff, and cashiers?

Why am I receiving fewer and fewer applications when I post a job?

Have you noticed that it’s taking months to get an appointment to fix your car, paint your house, or get your annual medical check-up?

Data show that the Hudson Valley is experiencing the start of The Great People Shortage, a term that demographers and economists are using for the steady trend toward global population decline. Higher living standards, rising costs, and other factors have pushed global birth rates below the threshold that is necessary to keep populations stable.¹

That means there are fewer of us to work, volunteer, and consume goods. That fact comes with many ramifications. Some are good. For example, fewer people to feed and less travel would likely reduce emissions that cause climate change. But shrinking populations will also exacerbate labor shortages, shrivel markets for consumer goods, and put upward pressure on wages. Data show that this trend is already happening in the Hudson Valley. We will share the trends from our region in the pages that follow by tracking births, school populations, migration and labor cohorts. We will also share the consequences of The Great People Shortage in the Hudson Valley and potential solutions.