Sunday, January 17th, 2021
A big question on our minds at Pattern for Progress is what the long-term demographic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will be. Unfortunately, more often than not, data we rely on is not available in real time. There is typically a time gap to allow for data processing and quality control. For example, In December 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau released data from the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS).
Nonetheless, the 2019 ACS provides valuable insight into various demographic and socioeconomic trends in the Hudson valley region. One of the most significant demographic trends affecting the Hudson Valley is low population growth and population decline as a result of outmigration and historically low fertility rates. The 2019 ACS data shows a continuation of these trends with low overall population growth and population decline in more rural counties further away from New York City.
The chart below illustrates the extreme differences in population growth between counties in the Hudson Valley region. From 2010 to 2019, Rockland County experienced the largest percentage increase in population (4.1%) of any county in the entire state, including the boroughs of New York City. Rockland, Westchester and Orange are three of only ten counties outside of New York City that experienced population growth since 2010. On the other end of the spectrum, the more rural counties of Sullivan, Colombia, and Greene all experienced at least a 3% decrease in population, ranking them near the bottom among all counties statewide.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 American Community Survey
It remains to be seen whether these population trends be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Anecdotal evidence and housing market metrics indicate that there was a significant outmigration from New York City into the Hudson valley. But where exactly did they land? And will the move be permanent? Pattern will be following these questions closely in the coming months and years.
