Out of Alignment
An Overview of the Mid-Hudson Valley from the Great Recession to 2030
The Mid-Hudson Valley is at a crossroads. The aftermath of the Great Recession has shined a light on the region’s fault lines, and it reveals an economy and demographics that have moved out of alignment. While the Mid-Hudson Valley may appear to be thriving, a closer look shows several trends that jeopardize the region’s economic well-being. Given the challenges facing the Mid-Hudson Valley, there is no better time than now to plan for the future.
Nationally, the United States is in a period of unprecedented economic expansion. But that expansion has been uneven and the benefits not shared by everyone. Part of the reason is that the country has moved from a manufacturing to a service economy. The same can be said for the Mid-Hudson Valley.
Regionally, the misalignment between the economy and its demographics is of grave concern. Overall population growth is essentially flat, and in many areas is declining, dramatically impacting school enrollment. The rapid decline in K-12 population impacts not just our schools, but the availability of a homegrown workforce. The data reflects that the region is getting older, and people are having fewer children than needed to replace the population. Young working-age people, if given the opportunity, leave to seek employment elsewhere, and if they stay, are postponing the formation of families due to the cost of living. Furthermore, high-paying jobs lost in the last two decades have made way for low-skill, low-wage jobs often resulting in workers having to hold down two jobs just to balance their budget.
The ramifications of these trends are alarming.
BEING OUT OF ALIGNMENT
means that by 2028, public school enrollment is projected to decline by 25.8% since 2000/01, even as per pupil costs skyrocket amid disappointing outcomes. As a result, local school taxes will continue to rise, raising questions whether the current system of public education is sustainable.
BEING OUT OF ALIGNMENT
means that residents 55 and older are projected to become 35% of the population by 2030 – we have not yet made the necessary social and economic adjustments to prepare for a significantly older population.
BEING OUT OF ALIGNMENT
means that given the burden of college debt, lack of affordable housing, and the cost of childcare and health care, it is not surprising that 48% of the region’s 18-34 year-olds live with their parents. The national average is 34%.
BEING OUT OF ALIGNMENT
means that the jobs being created pay less than what it costs to live here. As many as 8,774 manufacturing jobs with an average salary of $70,000 were lost between 2000 and 2017. Meanwhile, 13,130 additional jobs were created in retail and the accommodation and food services sector, which have average wages of $30,000 and $21,000 respectively in 2017. As a result, at least a third of residents struggle to make ends meet.
BEING OUT OF ALIGNMENT
means that we have a housing crisis. There is a critical shortage of affordable housing due to a mismatch between the needs, the inventory, and what is being built. The unequal economic recovery has also resulted in a higher number of homeless.
This project was funded by Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corp., and completed by Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.
